While there have been some infections reported by vaccinated individuals, their cases
have been relatively mild, with very few requiring hospitalization. Nearly 48 percent
of the population in Florida has been fully vaccinated. Michael says we will not reach
herd immunity until that figure increases to 85 percent. This is higher than previous
projections due to the prevalence of dominant variants. He says the next two months
are crucial in trying to put an end the pandemic.
He expects this to be the final wave of the pandemic in which will primarily occur
within the unvaccinated population. However, this will prompt a new surge in hospitalizations,
potentially exceeding hospital bed capacity.
There are many opportunities to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, including on USF’s campuses.
For more information, please visit the USF Returning to Campus website. Michael’s SEIRcast COVID-19 Forecast and Planning Portal shows that the slowing of vaccination since April combined with a steady reduction
in the practice of social mitigation measures and the spread of the highly contagious
alpha and delta variants will lead to a new spike in cases by mid-September, with
2,800 cases reported in Hillsborough County each day. The size of this spike will
be three times greater than that observed during the second wave which occurred last
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