The short version
- Counterpoint Research expects India’s 4G smartphone shipments to grow 3% year over year.
- The report puts 4G’s share of India’s overall smartphone market at 13% in 2026, compared with 11% in 2025.
- 4G shipments had declined sharply in 2025 before the expected rebound.
Counterpoint Research expects India’s 4G smartphone shipments to grow 3% year over year. Counterpoint Research expects India’s 4G smartphone shipments to grow 3% year over year in 2026, with 4G accounting for 13% of the overall smartphone market, up from 11% in 2025. The forecast is notable because 4G shipments had declined sharply in the previous year.
The low-cost phone market is still different
Rising component costs are widening the price gap between 4G and 5G devices.
The reason is not that Indian consumers are rejecting 5G. Instead, rising component costs are widening the price difference between 4G and 5G devices. In a market with a large price-sensitive segment, even a relatively small increase in the cost of a newer modem or related components can affect which devices manufacturers can sell at the target price.
The shift does not mean 5G adoption is reversing; rather, it shows that the low-cost segment can continue to support 4G demand.
Counterpoint Research provides the mobile-market figures used for the shipment outlook discussed here.
rather, it shows that the low-cost segment can continue to support 4G demand.
India’s smartphone market contains a large group of price-sensitive buyers for whom the difference between a 4G and 5G device can still influence the purchase decision. That makes component pricing an important part of the network transition.
That creates a two-speed market. Premium buyers can continue moving toward newer connectivity, while lower-cost phones can retain 4G hardware if the price advantage remains meaningful. Manufacturers have to balance network capability against the complete bill of materials.
The reported increase in 4G shipment share does not mean the market is moving backward. It reflects the fact that manufacturers can continue selling lower-cost 4G devices while higher-priced segments move to 5G.
Component costs can widen or narrow the price gap. If 5G hardware becomes cheaper, the incentive to choose 5G grows; if costs remain high, 4G can retain a role at the bottom of the market.
The forecast also illustrates why shipment data can tell a different story from technology roadmaps. 5G may remain the strategic direction,, while 4G continues to have commercial relevance because consumers buy based on price, availability and the features they actually need.